人民币汇率的“七时代”

The “Seven Times” of RMB Exchange Rate

人民币汇率在2019年8月跌破7.0之后,汇率进入了"七时代"。七时代的人民币汇率波动的影响因素相比以往更多。除了传统的经济基本面和汇率政策之外,中美贸易谈判形势的变化与美元指数的变动成为了影响2019年人民币汇率的两个主要因素。而在2020年,美国大选将令特朗普贸易施压的意愿有所降低,美元汇率也会因为美联储扩表等原因而逐步走弱。人民币汇率预期将迎来阶段性反弹的机会。中长期看,当前中国的国际收支形势并不支持人民币汇率大幅贬值。但是经常项目顺差的稳定性减弱和资本跨境流动程度的增加将为未来人民币汇率的波动埋下种子。

After the USD/CNY broke above 7.0 level in August 2019,the exchange rate entered the"7 Era".There are more factors to affect the RMB exchange rate in the new era.In addition to the traditional factors such as economic fundamentals and exchange rate policies,the CN-US trade negotiations and the U.S.dollar movements had become the two main factors affecting the RMB exchange rate in 2019.In 2020,the U.S.election will reduce Trump’s willingness to escalate the trade war,and the U.S.dollar exchange rate will gradually weaken due to the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.The RMB exchange rate is expected to have the opportunity of rebounding.In the mid term,China’s BOP condition does not support the sharp depreciation of the RMB.But there are also some potential headwinds for RMB in the long run.