基于“货币+信用”风火轮方法的我国大类资产配置研究

An Analysis of the Allocation of Major Assets in China Based on the “Currency+ Credit” Method

本文首先区分了货币目标松紧与信用现实松紧的定义,基于"货币+信用"风火轮方法,对我国大类资产配置进行分析。主要分析了不同"货币+信用"组合形态下金融市场的表现;并从债券市场和股票市场给出了不同"货币+信用"组合形态下金融市场变化的逻辑解释;具体分析了股票市场子板块在"货币+信用"不同组合中的表现。最后通过"货币+信用"变迁路径的历史统计,预测下一周期进入哪一种"货币+信用"组合的概率最大,分析结果表明,从目前情况来看此前中国经济处于"宽货币+紧信用"的状态组合中,目前这一状态正在进入到"宽货币+宽信用"的组合状态中。

This paper first distinguishes the definition of monetary target and credit reality.Based on the method of"currency+credit",this paper analyzes the allocation of large categories of assets in China.This paper mainly analyzes the performance of financial market under different"money+credit"combination forms,and gives the logical explanation of the change of financial market under different"money+credit"combination forms from bond market and stock market,and specifically analyzes the performance of sub sectors of stock market in different combinations of"money+credit".Finally,through the historical statistics of the"currency+credit"transition path,the probability of which"currency+credit"combination will enter into the next cycle is predicted to be the largest.The analysis results show that from the current situation,China’s economy was in the"wide currency+tight credit"state combination,and now this state is entering the"wide currency+wide credit"state combination.