金融周期研究新进展及其对中国的现实意义

New Development of Financial Cycle Research and Implications for China

2008年的全球金融危机使金融周期及其与经济周期的关系成为一个热点问题。金融周期最初源于经济学家对货币与信贷周期问题的关注,其理论是凯恩斯学派货币非中性观点在金融学的延伸。金融周期具有顺周期、频率更低、波幅更大的特点,金融周期对实体经济的影响不断增强,金融周期的峰值点十分靠近金融危机的爆发时点,而伴有金融收缩的经济下行比一般的衰退更为严重。我国经济呈现越来越明显的金融经济周期的特征,这对于健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架具有非常重要的现实意义。由于资产泡沫可以直接传导到通货膨胀,货币政策和宏观审慎政策不是各管一块,而是一个有机的整体,以期更好地调控经济周期和金融周期。

Financial cycle and its relationship with business cycle has become a hot topic since2008 global financial crisis.Having originated from money and credit cycles,financial cycle theory is based on Keynesian view that money is not neutral.A financial cycle is pro-cyclical with lower frequency and greater amplitude than traditional economic cycle.The impact of the financial cycle on the real economy is increasing.The peak of the financial cycle is very close to the outbreak of the financial crisis,and the economic downturn accompanied by financial contraction is much worse than the ordinary recession.China’s economy shows more and more obvious characteristics of the financial cycle,which has important implication for improving the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.In particular,monetary policy and macro-prudential policy should not be separated but integrated in order to smooth out business cycle and financial cycle.