公众预期对货币政策目标的时变效应研究

Research on the Time-Dependent Effects of Public Expectations and Monetary Policy Objectives

现有公众预期研究主要集中于理论研究,量化分析研究相对较少,为深入研究公众预期的影响,本文在文本分析方法的基础上构建了公众预期的量化指标体系,并借助时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR-SV)分析了公众预期对经济增长、物价稳定等主要货币政策目标的影响。分析认为:社会公众对我国经济金融发展预期总体呈现乐观状态,但呈现一定的下行压力;公众预期对货币政策目标的影响具有明显的时变特征,且不同领域的公众预期影响具有差异性;公众预期对货币政策目标的影响时滞效应较为显著。根据实证分析结果,本文提出了完善预期管理制度、丰富预期管理工具以及保持货币政策定力等相关建议。

Existing public expectations research mainly focuses on theoretical research,quantitative analysis and research is relatively small,therefore,this paper constructs a quantitative index system of public expectation based on text analysis method,and analyzes the influence of public expectation on major monetary policy objectives such as economic growth and price stability by means of TVP-VAR-SV.The analysis shows that:the public on China’s economic and financial development is generally optimistic,but there is a certain downward pressure;the influence of public expectation on monetary policy objectives has obvious time-varying characteristics,and the influence of public expectation in different fields is different.The time-lag effect of public expectation on monetary policy objectives is significant.According to the results of empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as perfecting the expectation management system,enriching the expectation management tools and maintaining the stability of monetary policy.