人口年龄结构对实际有效汇率的差异化影响研究

Research on the Differential Influence of Population Age Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate

本文利用62个国家1996-2018年的样本数据,构建全样本国家、超老龄化国家、深度老龄化国家、轻度老龄化国家和未老龄化国家等五种样本数据的面板模型,以研究人口年龄结构对实际有效汇率的差异化影响,并比较研究不同老龄化阶段国际资本流动渠道的有效性。研究表明:(1)人口年龄结构总体上会引起实际有效汇率升值,但在老龄化不同阶段,该影响关系具有明显异质性;(2)只在步入深度老龄化阶段后,老龄化才通过国际资本流动这个渠道有效影响实际有效汇率。本文对于认识和应对中国人口老龄化对人民币汇率的影响极具现实意义和重要启示。

This paper uses the sample data of 62 countries from 1996 to 2018 to construct a panel model of five sample data including full sample countries,super-aging countries,deeply aging countries,lightly aging countries,and non-aging countries to study population The differential influence of age structure on the real effective exchange rate,and comparative study of the effectiveness of international capital flow channels at different aging stages.Studies have shown that:(1)The age structure of the population will generally cause the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate,but at different stages of aging,the influence relationship is obviously heterogeneous;(2)Only after entering the deep aging stage,aging The real effective exchange rate is effectively affected through the channel of international capital flow.This article is of great practical significance and important enlightenment for understanding and coping with the impact of China’s population aging on the RMB exchange rate.