资本效率视角下我国利率长期趋势探析

Analysis of the Long-term Trend of Interest Rate in China from the Perspective of Capital Efficiency

利率是资本的价格,价格等于边际效率是市场均衡的重要条件,货币政策转型和利率市场化背景下,测算资本效率对利率调控具有重要政策意义。本文根据历史文献将资本效率区分为边际效率和平均效率,通过Cobb—Douglas生产函数测算资本边际效率,通过宏观资本回报率测算资本平均效率,通过实际利率与二者的比较讨论资本效率的货币政策含义,并对我国利率长期趋势进行探析。得出如下结论:一是资本边际效率和宏观资本回报率对实际利率的长期趋势具有引导作用;二是资本边际效率和宏观资本回报率均进入下行区间,利率长期趋势下行不可避免;三是近年来我国实际利率高于资本边际效率和宏观资本回报率,货币政策宽松操作尚有一定空间。基于此,本文建议:一是适应资本效率下行趋势,积极主动调整货币政策理念;二是在利率锚的选择中综合考虑自然利率和资本效率;三是优化投资结构,努力提高资本产出效率。

The interest rate is the price of capital,and the price equals to the marginal efficiency is the important condition of the market equilibrium,under the background of the transition of monetary policy and the marketization of interest rate,it has the important policy significance to measure the capital efficiency to the interest rate adjustment.This paper divides capital efficiency into marginal efficiency and average efficiency according to historical literature,calculates capital marginal efficiency by Cobb-Douglas function of production,and calculates capital average efficiency by macro-return on capital,this paper discusses the monetary policy implications of capital efficiency by comparing the real interest rate with the two indicators,and probes into the long-term trend of interest rate in China.The conclusions are as follows:First,the marginal efficiency of capital and the rate of return of macro-capital have a guiding effect on the long-term trend of real interest rate;Second,both of the marginal efficiency of capital and the rate of return of macro-capital enters the downward range,and the downward trend of interest rate is inevitable;Third,in recent years,the real interest rate is higher than the marginal efficiency of capital and the return rate of macro-capital.The paper proposes based on this conclusions:First,to adapt to the downward trend of capital efficiency and actively adjust the monetary policy idea;Second,to consider both natural interest rate and capital efficiency in the choice of interest rate anchors;Third,to optimize the investment structure,strive to improve the efficiency of capital output.