经济复苏较快,价格总体回升——2020年三季度价格形势及展望

Economy Recovered Rapidly,and Prices Generally Rebounded:Price Situation and Outlook for the Third Quarter of 2020

2020年7、8月份,投资、消费和出口需求均有所复苏,对相关行业和产品价格的回升形成支撑。部分地区遭受汛情,生猪、鲜菜等鲜活产品的生产和调运受阻,供给短期收缩,食品价格上升。基建、房地产投资需求持续增长,并向中上游传导,加之国际大宗商品价格从低谷回升,PPI环比上涨、同比降幅收窄。预计国内经济运行将持续向好,对价格稳定形成支撑。在全球经济整体恢复乏力的背景下,以国际原油为代表的大宗商品价格将持续在低位呈震荡走势,对国内的PPI影响弱化;基建、房地产投资需求增长,将带动部分工业品价格企稳回升。

In July and August 2020,investment,consumption and export demand all recovered,supporting the recovery of related industries and product prices.Some areas suffered from floods,the production and distribution of live pigs,fresh vegetables and other fresh products were hindered,supply contracted in the short term,and food prices rose.The demand for infrastructure and real estate investment continued to grow and was transmitted to the middle and upper reaches.Coupled with the recovery of international commodity prices from the trough,the PPI rose month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed.It is expected that the domestic economic operation will continue to improve,supporting price stability.In the context of the overall weak recovery of the global economy,the prices of bulk commodities represented by international crude oil will continue to fluctuate at a low level,weakening the impact on domestic PPI;growth in infrastructure and real estate investment demand will drive the prices of some industrial products to stabilize and rise.