中亚五国2019年经济金融形势分析及展望

Economic and Financial Situation Analysis and Future Prospects of Five Central Asian Countries in 2019

2019年,中亚地区政治经济形势总体平稳。受外部环境改善和部分国家推动经济改革影响,区域内国家经济整体呈现良好的增长态势,通胀形势保持稳定,财政压力有所缓解。由于外部环境变动频繁加之内部经济改革推动缓慢,中亚国家国内多年累积的内部经济问题并未得到有效解决。个别国家政局动荡,经济下行压力依然存在、债务风险上升、民生问题突出。经济结构不合理的问题并未得到有效改善。伴随各国经济与国际市场关联度不断加大,外汇市场波动较大,货币币值不稳定,外债压力继续存在。各国经济发展仍然存在较多不确定性。2020年,受新冠疫情爆发和国际原油价格下跌影响,中亚五国经济再次面临考验,需要进一步加强关注。

In 2019 the political and economic situation in Central Asia was generally stable.Due to the improvement of the external environment and the recovery of domestic demand in some countries,the economies of various countries maintained a recovery growth,and financial pressures were alleviated to some extent.Due to the sluggish global commodity prices,the foreign trade performance of the countries is not good,the government’s foreign exchange reserves are further reduced,and external debt pressures continue to exist.The inflation trend of various countries has been divided.The high inflation problems in Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,and Tajikistan have been effectively suppressed.The inflationary pressures in Uzbekistan and Turkey have continued to rise.Affected by external factors,the foreign exchange market of Central Asian countries fluctuated greatly,and the currencies of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan depreciated sharply.The problem of irrational economic structure in Central Asian countries has not been effectively improved,structural problems remain outstanding,and economic development still has more uncertainties,In 2020,affected by the outbreak of new crown disease and the fall of international crude oil price,the economies of the five Central Asian countries are once again facing a test and need to be further strengthened.