央行沟通对银行风险承担行为的影响研究——基于认知与言行双重视角

The influence of central bank communication on bank’s risk-taking behavior——A study based on the dual perspectives of cognition and words and deeds

近年来,中国央行沟通在熨平经济波动和维护金融稳定间发挥着越来越重要的作用,然而鲜有研究对央行沟通与银行风险承担之间的关系进行解释。为此,本文通过央商认知、央行言行两个维度,系统构建央行沟通等多种指数,对央行沟通与银行风险承担间的关系进行了系统的理论分析,并采用两种风险承担度量指标,运用2008-2019年的季度数据对理论分析进行实证检验。结果表明央行沟通对银行风险承担水平的影响并非呈简单的线性关系,而呈倒"U"型关系,且央商认知一致性和央行言行可信度对银行风险承担的影响具有正向的协同效应。因此,在熨平经济波动和维护金融稳定之间,央行需要根据宏观经济金融形势,相机选择合适的沟通方式与沟通内容,并实施合适的货币政策。另外,当经济处于萧条时期,央行沟通、货币政策的有效性将大幅降低,此时积极的财政政策要更加主动作为。

in recent years,the communication between the Central Bank of China has been play-ing an increasingly important role in smoothing economic fluctuations and financial stability.Yet few studies have explained the relationship between central bank commun-ication and bank risk-taking.Therefore,this paper systematically constructs a variety of indexes such as central bank communication through the two dimensions of the cogniti-on of central bank and commercial bank,and central bank words and deeds,and makes a systematic theoretical analysis of the relationship between central bank communica-tion and bank risk-taking,and uses two kinds of risk-taking measurement indicators to empirically test the theoretical analysis using the quarterly data from 2008 to 2019.The results show that the impact of central bank communication on the risk-taking level of banks is not a simple linear relationship,but an inverted"U"relationship,and there is a positive synergistic effect between the cognitive consistency of central banks and the credibility of central banks’words and deeds on the impact of bank risk-taking.There-fore,between ironing out economic fluctuations and maintaining financial stability,the central bank needs to select appropriate communication methods and contents and im-plement appropriate monetary policies according to the macroeconomic and financial situation.In addition,when the economy is in a depression period,the effectiveness of central bank communication and monetary policy will be greatly reduced.At this time,the active fiscal policy should be more active.