城市商业银行盈利分析:GMM及驱动因素分解

Profit analysis of city commercial banks:GMM and decomposition of driving factors

文章基于67家城市商业银行2009-2018年的数据,在运用系统GMM法进行模型估计的基础上分解净利润增长的驱动因素,研究城市商业银行十年来盈利增长的驱动因素变化。结果发现,城市商业银行净利润增速逐年下滑,其背后是净利润增长驱动因素的改变,即利差收入对净利润增长的驱动作用快速弱化,非息收入则成为稳定净利润增长的压舱石,有效的成本及费用管控助推降本增效,而资产减值损失成为侵蚀利润的主要因素。基于此,文章提出城市商业银行应基于现有业务模式,集中资源发展真正具有竞争优势的利基市场,提高价值创造能力;优化资产负债结构,着力提升资产收益率、降低负债端成本,夯实利差收入;稳步加大非息业务布局,协调发展传统非息业务以及新型非息业务,保持非息业务长期稳健增长;强化风险管理,减少风险损失,提升拨备前利润水平。

Based on the financial data of 65 city commercial banks in 2009-2018,this paper studies the driving factors of profit growth in the past decade based on the GMM and decomposition of driving factors of net profit growth.The results show that the growth rate of net profit has been declining year by year.Behind this profit trend is the change of the driving factors of net profit growth.The driving effect of interest margin income has been weakened rapidly,while non interest income has become the ballast of the stable growth of net profit.The asset impairment loss has become the main factor to erode the profits,while cost control has promoted the cost reduction and the promotion of efficiency.Based on this,this paper puts forward countermeasures to improve the profitability of city commercial banks.Firstly,city commercial banks should seek and concentrate resources to develop real niche market with competitive advantage;secondly,city commercial banks should optimize the structure of assets and liabilities,strive to improve asset income ratio and reduce debt cost;thirdly,city commercial banks should steadily increase the distribution and development of non interest business to optimize the income structure and maintain the steady growth of non interest business;fourthly,city commercial banks should strengthen risk management to reduce risk loss of assets and improve the level of profit before provision.