信贷增长的周期特征及经济增长效应问题研究

Research on the characteristics of China’s credit cycle and economic growth

在相当长的时期里,金融宏观调控必将面临促进宏观经济健康发展和维护金融稳定的艰巨任务。结合我国的金融运行的实际,开展对信贷增长的周期特征及经济增长效应问题研究,有着重要的现实意义。本文基于信贷增速年度数据进行了周期划分,并通过构建SVAR模型,进一步测算了国内生产总值、物价、固定资产投资以及货币等变量对信贷增长影响的程度和方向。结果表明,信贷周期呈现明显的阶段性特征且具有明显的顺经济周期性。

In a long period of time,financial macro-control is bound to face the arduous task of promoting the healthy development of macro-economy and maintaining financial stability.Combined with the reality of China’s financial operation,it is of great practical significance to study the cyclical characteristics of credit growth and the effect of economic growth.Based on the annual data of credit growth,this paper divides the credit growth cycle,and further estimates the degree and direction of the impact of GDP,price,investment and currency on credit growth by constructing SVAR model.The results show that the credit cycle presents obvious stage characteristics and has obvious pro economic periodicity.