经济减速与债务膨胀

Economic Slowdown and Debt Expansion

近年来,许多国家的经济增长相对于债务率都存在一种"两相背离"现象,美国和其它发达国家的缺口在2016后呈明显的缩小趋势,而我国的缺口却日趋扩大。传统债务解决方法提出的利率和通胀率的调节作用正在减弱,可能意味着"金融抑制"在消减债务方面将难以为继。在当前我国长期经济增长率下降的背景下,政府债务率不断上升的空间已经不多,经济减速对债务率的影响效应正在显现,并可能会进一步扩大。我国政府应该未雨绸缪,积极筹划财政调整,控制不断高企的公共债务率,为保持我国经济持续稳健发展创造良好条件。

In recent years,there has been a"two-phase divergence"between economic growth and debt ratios in many countries.The gap between the two indicators in the United States and developed countries has shown a significant downward trend after 2016,while this gap in China has been expanding.The adjustment of market interest rates and inflation rates proposed in traditional debt solutions is weakening,which may mean that"financial restraint"will be unsustainable in debt reduction.In the context of the current decline in China’s long-term economic growth rate,there is not much room for the government debt rate to rise.The effect of the economic slowdown on the debt ratio is emerging and may be further expanded.The Chinese government should take precautions,actively plan fiscal adjustments,control the constantly high public debt ratio,and create favorable conditions for maintaining the sustained and steady development of China’s economy.