高加索和中亚地区“浮动恐惧”的汇率制度分析

Analysis Of The Exchange Rate Operation Mode Of“Fear Of Floating”In The Caucasus And Central Asia

2014年以来,受外部冲击因素影响,中亚和高加索地区(CCA)国家的货币出现较大震动。很多国家就势改革汇率制度,实行更加灵活的汇率政策。但囿于自身发展的限制,实际上又实施了一定程度的汇率管制。这种"浮动恐惧",不利于CCA国家优化汇率制度、提升汇率调控水平、调节国内外经济资源配置,同时也加重了CCA国家的负担,影响了其经济增长。本文分析了当前CCA国家汇率制度、资本管制、货币错位等情况,从货币政策、通货膨胀、金融美元化程度、金融市场发展程度、政治经济等方面对比分析了造成这一现象的原因。在此基础上,从货币政策现代化及汇率调整、降低美元化水平、提高金融稳定性、提升中央银行政策沟通能力角度,提出CCA国家克服"浮动恐惧"障碍,提升汇率政策灵活性的路径选择。

Since 2014,affected by external shocks,the currencies of Central Asia and the Caucasus(CCA)countries have experienced major shocks.Many countries are reforming their exchange rate systems and adopting more flexible exchange rate policies.However,due to the limitations of its own development,it actually implemented a certain degree of exchange rate control.This"floating fear"is not conducive to optimizing the exchange rate system of CCA countries,enhancing the level of exchange rate control,and adjusting the allocation of economic resources at home and abroad.At the same time,it also increases the burden on CCA countries and affects their economic growth.This article analyzes the current CCA countries*exchange rate systems,capital controls,currency misalignment,etc.,and compares and analyzes the reasons for this phenomenon from the aspects of monetary policy,inflation,the degree of financial dollarization,the degree of financial market development,and political economy.On this basis,from the perspective of modernizing monetary policy and adjusting exchange rates,reducing the level of dollarization,improving financial stability,and enhancing the ability of central bank policies to communicate,CCA countries are proposed to overcome the obstacles of"floating fear"and improve the flexibility of exchange rate policies.