稳健时期货币政策工具实施效果研究

Research on the Effect of Monetary Policy Tools In Steady Period

中国货币政策步入稳健新阶段与经济发展进入新常态的时机相吻合,货币政策工具的使用也更具针对性。本文通过对国内外货币政策工具有效性及新稳健阶段以来货币政策工具实施情况进行回顾,以人民银行货币政策的流动性和支持性两项重点工作为中间目标,以公开市场操作、存款准备金和贷款类工具三个主要工具为操作目标,通过建立SVAR模型运用广义脉冲响应和方差分解的方法,研究货币政策工具在完成人民银行既定目标上的效果和贡献,结果显示:各类工具都能按照创设初衷实现流动性和支持性目的,但总体效果受到制约。通过着重分析货币政策工具使用效果,从人民银行职能出发提出根据工具特点分领域使用、完善并创新货币工具体系和疏通货币政策传导等建议。

The monetary policy is entering a new phase of stability and coincides with the timing of the economic development entering the new normal.The monetary policy tools are more targeted.This research reviewed the effect of the monetary policy tools domestic and foreign and the progress status of these tools at new steady stage.It takes liquidity and supportive of PBC monetary policy as intermediate goal and the open market operations,deposit reserve and loan class tools as operation targets.It studies the effects and contribution of monetary policy tools on achieving the goal of PBC monetary policy by formatting SVAR module and using the generalized impulse response and variance decomposition.The conclusion shows that all the four tools could support the liquidity and supportive purpose of PBC,but the total effect is constrained.By analyzing the effectiveness of monetary policy tools,the research suggests that the PBC.should use tools according to their characteristics in different areas,improve the system of monetary policy tools and dredge the conduction of monetary policy tools.