我国部门杠杆率变动的宏观经济冲击效应研究——基于DSGE实证分析

Study on the Macroecomomic Shock Effectof Departmental Leverage Change in China:Based on DSGE Model

自2015年中央经济工作会议将去杠杆列为供给侧结构性改革的重要任务以来,我国去杠杆工作取得了初步成效。2018年中央财经委首次提出"结构性去杠杆",标志着我国去杠杆进入了新阶段。本文重点从分部门角度聚焦我国杠杆率近年来的发展变化、当前现状以及存在的风险,通过构建开放经济条件下的DSGE模型,研究杠杆变动对宏观经济造成的冲击。研究发现,杠杆冲击是驱动经济周期波动的重要原因;杠杆对经济产出、投资和物价均产生同向冲击;在去杠杆进程中,最终产出的下降趋势会持续相当长一段时间。

Since deleveraging was listed as an important task in the supply-side structural reform in the 2015 Central Economic Work Conference,China’s deleveraging work has achieved a few initial results.In 2018. "structural deleveraging" was proposed for the first time in the first meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee,marking the beginning of a new phase for China’s deleveraging.This artical focuses on the development,changes,current status and risks of leverage in recent years from the perspective of sub-sectors,the impact of leverage changes on the macro economy is studied by constructing the DSGE model under open economic conditions.Through the analysis,we have come to following conclusions:leveraged shock is a very important reason for driving economic cycle fluctuations;leverage has the same impact on economic output,investment and prices;In the process of deleveraging,the declining trend of final output will continue for quite a long time.