货币政策和财政政策对中国消费和投资的有效性评估

Assessing the Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Chinese Investment and Consumption

本文研究了货币政策和财政政策冲击对中国固定资产投资和社会消费品零售总额的动态效应.其主要结论如下:1)线性脉冲响应结果表明,只有贷款利率冲击对固定资产投资有短期显著地负向影响,而货币供给政策冲击和财政支出政策冲击对国内投资和消费的影响均不显著;2)状态依赖的脉冲响应表明,贷款利率在扩张时期对固定资产投资和社会消费品零售总额有短期显著的负向作用,但在衰退时期没有显著的影响;3)无论是在扩张时期还是在衰退时期,货币供给和政府支出政策对实际投资和消费均没有显著的影响.基于这些研究结论,我们建议不应在衰退时期实施大规模的政策刺激计划.

This paper studies the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on China’s fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods.The main conclusions are as follows:1)The results of linear impulse responses of policy shocks shows that only the loan interest rate shock has a significant negative impact on fixed asset investment in the short term,while the effects of monetary supply policy and fiscal spending policy shocks on domestic investment and consumption are statistically insignificant;2)The results of state dependent impulse responses of policy shocks show that loan interest rate shock has a short-term significant negative effect on fixed asset investment and retail sales of social consumer goods in periods of expansion but the impact is not significant during recessions;3)money supply and government spending policy have no significant impact on real investment and consumption,no matter whether in expansions or in recessions.Based on these findings,we suggest that large-scale policy stimulus should not be implemented in a recession.