BGG-DSGE模型下罕见灾难风险宏观经济效应研究——兼论新冠肺炎疫情的宏观经济影响

Macroeconomic Effect of Rare Disaster Risk and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 under the BGG-DSGE Model

将罕见灾难风险引入BGG-DSGE模型,风险类型扩展为全要素生产率灾难风险、资本灾难风险和消费灾难风险,分析罕见灾难风险的传导机制与宏观经济影响。研究发现,与真实经济周期框架下的分析结论不同,全要素生产率灾难风险使得我国的就业与企业外部融资状况有所改善,但会抑制产出与消费,产生通货膨胀压力;资本灾难风险短期会刺激产出和消费,但是存在通货紧缩倾向,且企业外部融资成本上升;消费灾难风险能够缓解企业融资压力,刺激投资,但产出与消费受损,就业压力增加。新冠肺炎疫情对消费、投资需求的初始冲击通过居民收入与消费需求间、劳动需求与投资水平间、资本品需求与企业财务状况间的循环作用机制,对消费、储蓄投资、产出、利率、资本品市场、劳动力市场等产生连锁反应。因此,政府需关注居民与企业间、企业与资本市场间以及消费与就业间可能出现的恶性循环,保证经济发展活力。

In this paper,the disaster risk is introduced into the BGG-DSGE model,and the types of disaster risk are expanded to consumption,TFP and capital disaster risk.This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of disaster risk,its macroeconomic effect,and the economic impact of COVID-19 in China.The results show that,different from the analysis results under the RBC framework,the TFP disaster risk will improve the employment and external financing of enterprises,but will inhibit the output and consumption of China,resulting in inflation pressure in the economy;the capital disaster risk will stimulate output and consumption in the short term,but there is a tendency of deflation in the economy,and the external financing cost of enterprises will increase;the consumption disaster risk can alleviate the capital pressure of enterprises and stimulate investment,but output and consumption will be damaged and employment pressure will increase.The initial impact of the COVID-19 on the consumption demand and investment demand in the economy has a chain effect on economic indicators such as consumption,saving and investment,output,interest rate,capital goods market and labor market through the circular mechanism between residents’income and consumption demand,labor demand and investment level,and capital goods demand and corporate financial status.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to the possible vicious cycle between residents and enterprises,between enterprises and capital markets,and between consumption and employment,to ensure the vitality of economic development.