基于贝叶斯原理的审计风险估计

Audit Risk Estimation Based on Bayesian Principle

审计是一个持续的“判断—取证”过程。注册会计师对于审计风险的估计随着审计过程的持续进行而不断调整,如果财务报表给定,则其错报也就相应固定,审计风险的估计及其调整将取决于“判断—取证”过程中正确识别错报是否有效。基于这一逻辑,本文从概率的角度,基于贝叶斯原理讨论和分析了与现行审计风险模型相关的若干问题。通过分析错报风险与检查风险对审计风险的作用机制,重新构建了一个基于贝叶斯原理的审计风险模型。该模型逻辑清晰,具有可计算性,可适用于多种应用场景。本文的研究为审计风险的定量化测度提供了一个可行的方法,并在此基础上,进一步指出了如何降低审计风险、提高审计质量的可能路径。

Auditing is a continuous process of"making judgment—obtaining evidence".The CPA's audit risk estimation is constantly adjusted as the audit process continues,and if the financial statements are given their misstatement is correspondingly fixed,the audit risk estimation and its adjustment will depend on the validity of the correct identification of the misstatement during the"making judgment—obtaining evidence"process.Based on this logic,this article discusses and analyzes several issues related to current audit risk model from the probability perspective and based on Bayesian principle,and reconstructs an audit risk model based on Bayesian principle by analyzing the influence mechanism of misstatement risk and inspection risk on audit risk.On basis of the above analysis,this article proposes the possible paths of how to reduce audit risk and improve audit quality.