贸易不确定性、金融摩擦与经济波动

Trade Uncertainty,Financial Frictions and Real Economic Fluctuations

近年来随着全球贸易摩擦加剧,我国经济面临的外部不确定性显著上升。本文首先测度了我国的贸易不确定性,并从宏观总量与微观企业两个层面检验了贸易不确定性的经济影响。接着,本文进一步将贸易不确定性引入包含金融摩擦的小型开放DSGE模型中,探讨贸易不确定性冲击对实体经济的影响与作用渠道。研究发现:(1)贸易不确定性上升会对我国实体经济带来显著的紧缩效应,但是幅度有限,1标准差贸易不确定性冲击造成GDP增长率在未来12个季度内累计下降约0.46%。(2)金融摩擦程度越大,贸易不确定性对产出与企业投资的抑制作用越强。因此,市场要理性看待中美贸易摩擦,不必过度悲观;同时,我国政府应当控制国内的宏观杠杆率,以降低金融摩擦对贸易不确定性负面影响的放大作用。

This paper shows how changes in the time varying volatility of trading growth has an important effect on variables like output and investment.We start by incorporating stochastic volatility into export and import data and estimating trade uncertainty in China.We examine the economic effect both with macro and firm-level evidence.Then we feed this process in a small open economy DSGE model with financial frictions.We find that an increase in trade uncertainty triggers a fall in output and investment,where financial frictions is a channel.We also show that our uncertainty measurement outperforms those text analysis results in explaining economic fluctuations.