女性明星分析师:“玻璃天花板”还是“花瓶”

Female Star Analysts: “Glass Ceiling” Crackers or Flashy Decoration

近年来,明星分析师评选期间爆出的一些关于女性分析师颇具争议的"低俗拉票"行为引发了市场对女性明星分析师专业能力的诸多质疑。在此背景下,本文以2009—2017年中国A股市场明星分析师发布的31 491份上市公司盈余预测报告为研究对象,对明星分析师性别与其盈余预测质量之间的影响关系进行了实证检验。研究发现:女性明星分析师相比男性明星分析师而言表现出显著更高的盈余预测准确性,这种盈余预测质量优势在分析师所属券商规模较小时和市场态势为"熊市"时表现得更为明显。进一步的中介效应检验结果表明,女性明星分析师主要通过更高的行业和公司专长提高其盈余预测准确度;此外,女性明星分析师在现金流预测方面也更为准确,并且其盈余预测的市场反应显著强于男性明星分析师,意味着投资者能够识别出女性明星分析师盈余预测质量优势。本文的结论表明,女性明星分析师是凭借优秀的专业能力冲破了"玻璃天花板"而成为以男性主导的明星分析师队伍的佼佼者,而非中看不中用的"花瓶",相关研究工作既丰富了明星分析师预测和个体性别差异经济后果的研究文献,也具有重要的实践启示和政策参考价值。

From the perspective of gender differences, this paper compares the earnings forecasts quality of female and male star analysts in China’s A-share market. Using a sample of 31 491 earnings forecast reports released by star analysts during 2009-2017, we find that earnings forecasts of female star analysts are more accurate than that of male star analysts and this advantage is more pronounced when the brokerage size is relatively small and when the markets is in "bear" state. Further analysis shows that with narrower industry coverage, female star analysts have better industry expertise and release more forecasts for specific companies, which is likely to be the source of their superior forecasting accuracy. In addition, the accuracy of cash flow forecasts of female star analysts is also higher, reflecting their consistent competency. Event study finds that investors react more to earnings forecast issued by female star analysts than to those issued by male star analysts, suggesting that investors are able to recognize the superior forecast performance of female star analysts. Overall, our findings suggest that female star analysts, who crack the "glass ceiling" in the male-dominated finance industry and become star analysts, actually show superior forecasting ability.