汇率决定与经济金融危机的后凯恩斯主义分析及其启示

Exchange Rate Determination and Economic-Financial Crises in Post Keynesian Economics and Its Implications

后凯恩斯主义认为,在当前的外汇市场上,汇率及其变化主要取决于短期资本流动,而非西方主流理论声称的"根本因素"。经济主体在根本不确定性的环境中,遵循启发式原则形成预期、作出判断、付诸行动,具有从众效应,易发生突然逆转,导致汇率不稳、波动频繁。后凯恩斯主义强调,作为金融市场的一部分,外汇市场与其他金融市场和实体经济紧密联系在一起,投资周期的约束造成收入流与支出流、现实收益与预期金融收益、非金融汇率与市场汇率等多个"紧张点",危机将率先以某个"紧张点"断裂的形式爆发,而后通过各种传导路径影响其他市场和整体经济。为此,后凯恩斯主义主张采取适度资本管控、合理引导预期、维护货币主权等措施,尽可能降低汇率大幅波动的不利影响,促进一国经济良性发展。

In the view of Post-Keynesianism,exchange rate and its fluctuation in current foreign exchange market are mainly determined by short term capital flows,not fundamentals claimed by mainstream Western theory.The exchange rate is unstable and volatile due to the fundamental uncertainty under which the agents form their expectation,make decisions,and take actions which lead to bandwagon effects and dramatic reverse.Post-Keynesianism emphasizes that as a part of financial markets,exchange market is closely connected with other financial markets and real economy.The constraint of investment cycle causes different tension points in different markets between inflows and outflows,real profit and expected financial revenue,non-financial exchange rate and market exchange rates.Crises are doomed to happen when certain tension point is broken,then spread to other markets and the whole economy through various ways of transmission mechanisms.Post-Keynesianism suggests controlling certain capital flows,guiding expectation reasonably,and retaining monetary sovereignty to reduce negative effects by the volatility of exchange rate and promote better development.