我国宏观杠杆率的新变化、风险与对策

New Changes,Risks and Strategies of China’s Macro Leverage Ratio

2020年我国宏观杠杆率快速攀升,表明自2015年起的去杠杆进程告一段落。与2008—2014年加杠杆阶段相比,2020年各部门加杠杆的结构、渠道、期限出现新变化。非金融企业部门加杠杆主体从国有企业变为私营企业,政府和居民部门杠杆率出现一些积极的转变,中央政府财政支出责任增加,地方政府市场化融资水平明显提高,居民部门加杠杆的增速放缓。总体上,杠杆率上升缓冲了疫情的负面影响,但也带来债务规模大幅增长、金融风险上升。为平衡经济修复和防风险的关系,2021年我国货币政策、财政政策将逐步回归常态,坚持"房住不炒"和控制资金流向,控制新增债务规模和杠杆率增速,稳定宏观杠杆率。

In 2020,China has promoted the rapid rise of macro-leverage ratio,indicating that deleveraging from 2015 is coming to an end.Compared with the 2008-2014 period of increasing leverage,there have been new changes in the structure,channels,and duration of China’s economic increase in leverage in 2020.The non-financial corporate sector increased leverage from state-owned enterprises to private enterprises,the government and residential sector leverage ratios have undergone some positive changes,the central government’s fiscal expenditure responsibility has increased,the level of local government market-based financing has increased significantly,and the growth rate of increased leverage in the residential sector slowed down.In general,the increase in leverage has buffered the negative impact of the epidemic,but it has also brought about a substantial increase in debt and financial risks.In order to balance the relationship between economic restoration and risk prevention,China’s monetary and fiscal policies will gradually return to normal in 2021,insisting that"houses are used for living,not for speculation",controlling capital flows,and controlling the scale of new debt and leverage rate growth and stabilize the macro leverage ratio.