经济政策稳定性对我国生猪产业链价格的影响

The Impact of Economic Policy Stability on the Price of China’s Pig Industry Chain

近年来,我国生猪产业链价格波动强烈,"肉贱伤农,价高伤民"等情况时有发生。经济政策是造成我国生猪产业链价格波动的重要因素之一。本文选取2005—2019年全国生猪产业链价格的月度数据及经济政策稳定性指数,运用TVP-VAR模型实证研究经济政策稳定性对生猪产业链各环节价格的冲击传导机制及各环节价格的响应特征。研究发现:经济政策稳定性变动对生猪产业链价格的冲击强烈且持续性较强,其对生猪产业链各环节价格的冲击在强度、方向和持续期上呈现差异性;经济政策稳定性变动对生猪上游产业链价格和中下游产业链价格的冲击具有非对称性,生猪中下游产业链价格受到负向冲击的强度大于上游产业链,受到正向冲击的强度小于上游产业链,揭示了生猪产业链各环节承担风险和利益分配的不均衡特征;在经济政策稳定性指数波动期的波峰时点,经济政策稳定性变差会对生猪产业链各环节的价格迅速造成负向冲击。因此,应采取措施预防和缓释经济政策稳定性变动对生猪产业链的影响,引导产业链各主体的利益分配和风险承担趋向合理化,长效促进生猪产业健康发展。

In recent years,the price fluctuation of China’s pig industry chain is strong,and"cheap meat hurts farmers,high price hurts people"and other situations occur from time to time.The stable change of economic policy is an important factor that causes the price fluctuation of China’s pig industry chain.This paper selects the monthly price data and economic policy stability index of China’s pig industry chain from 2005 to 2019 and uses TVP-VAR model to empirically study the impact transmission mechanism of economic policy stability change on the price of each link of the pig industry chain and the response characteristics of the price of each link.The results show that:(1)the impact of the change of economic policy stability on the price of the pig industry chain is strong and persistent,and the impact on the price of each link of the pig industry chain is different in intensity,direction and duration;(2)the impact of the change of economic policy stability on the price of the pig upstream industry chain and the price of the middle and downstream industry chain is asymmetric The intensity of negative impact on the price of the industry chain is greater than that of the upstream industry chain,and the intensity of positive impact is less than that of the upstream industry chain;(3)at the peak of the fluctuation period of economic policy stability index,the deterioration of economic policy stability will quickly cause negative impact on the price of each link of the pig industry chain.Therefore,the government should take measures to prevent and slow down the impact of the stable changes of economic policies on the pig industry,guide the interest distribution and risk-taking of the main body of the pig industry chain to rationalize,and promote the healthy development of the pig industry in a long-term.