中国一次能源安全影响因素、评价与展望

Influencing Factors,Evaluation and Outlook of Primary Energy Security in China

社会经济稳定发展离不开能源安全的保障,尤其是在中国面临的外部政治经济环境已经发生重大变化的情况下,能源安全的重要性更加突出。针对一次能源安全问题,从能源的可得性、经济性、清洁性和可持续性四个维度构建中国能源安全评价指标体系。以熵权法—TOPSISI距离函数模型对中国2005—2024年的能源安全水平进行定量测度和评价,并通过灰色关联分析法探究与中国能源安全关联程度较高的影响因素。研究表明2005—2019年,有6年时间中国能源安全处于预警等级,整体而言能源安全水平呈先下降后上升的态势,且2020—2024年能源安全水平仍有进一步的提升空间。通过对能源安全水平及其影响因素的关联度分析,发现人口自然增长率、石油进口集中度、中国创新指数、石油进口经济承载力、产业结构是与能源安全水平关联程度最高的5个因素。根据分析结果和存在的薄弱环节,应将能源可获得性作为预防能源风险的重要内容;处理好能源短期安全与长期安全的关系;把"稳价格""降成本"作为提高能源安全保障的重要途径;坚定推进能源清洁化、可持续发展。

Energy security is indispensable for stable socio-economic development,and its importance has become even more pronounced considering the significant changes in the external political and economic environment that China is facing.Based on China’s basic national conditions,the study builds an index system for evaluating China’s primary energy security in four dimensions:energy availability,economy,cleanliness,and sustainability.The entropy weight method-TOPSISI distance function model is used to quantitatively measure and evaluate China’s energy security level from 2005 to 2024,and the gray correlation analysis is used to explore the influencing factors that are highly related to China’s energy security.The study shows that from 2005 to 2019,there are six years in which energy security is at an early warning level.Overall,China’s energy security level shows a decreasing trend before increasing,and there is still room for further improvement from 2020 to 2024.Through the correlation analysis of the energy security level and its influencing factors,it is found that the natural population growth rate,oil import concentration,China’s innovation index,oil import economic carrying capacity,and industrial structure are the five factors with the highest correlation with the energy security level.Finally,based on the results of the analysis and the existing weaknesses,four targeted recommendations are made.The availability of energy should be regarded as an important part of the prevention of energy risks;the relationship between short-term energy security and long-term security should be handled;"price stabilization"and"cost reduction"should be taken as important ways to improve energy security;and we should firmly promote clean and sustainable energy development.