退休制度、劳动供给与收入消费动态

Retirement Policies,Labor Supply and Income-Consumption Dynamics

本文基于2010—2012年和2014—2016年的中国城镇家户调查月度数据,用事件分析法系统地研究了中国城镇居民的劳动参与、收入消费以及不平等在退休年龄前后的季度动态变化。首先,在达到法定退休年龄后的前三年,约14%的男性和约22%的女性在领取养老金的同时会继续参与劳动力市场。这种“退而不休”的现象在养老金收入较低的群体中更为普遍。其次,家庭收入在退休年龄前后并未减少,在女性样本中还上升了7%。家户消费在退休年龄后上升了4%,消费扩张主要集中在医疗和食品等类别。最后,分位数回归结果显示,同一出生队列内部的收入不平等在达到退休年龄后有所缓解,消费不平等则进一步加剧。本文的研究发现为退休政策改革的机制设计提供了依据,也为预判改革的福利后果提供了参考。

As fertility declines and life expectancy increases,problems associated with population aging become increasingly challenging for China.The reform of retirement policies and the raising of the retirement age have been put on agenda of the Chinese government.In this context,understanding people's economic responses to retirement has important implications for policymaking.Based on the monthly data of the 2010-2012 and 2014-2016 China Urban Household Survey(UHS),this paper employs the event study method to investigate the dynamics of Chinese urban citizens'labor supply,income,consumption,and economic inequality around the legal retirement age.First,we find working after retirement is prevalent in the urban elderly population,especially among urban citizens with low pension income.For example,in the first three years after retirement,about 14%of men and 22%of women are still active in the labor market while simultaneously receiving pensions.Second,on average,for female retirees,their household income does not decline after retirement and even increases by 7%.Household consumption increases by about 4%after retirement,mainly caused by the expansion of food consumption and health expenditure.This finding contradicts the dominant retirement-consumption puzzle in previous literature.Third,the results of quantile regressions show that since low-income citizens are more likely to keep working after claiming retirement and consume less,intra-cohort inequality in income decreases after retirement while intra-cohort inequality in consumption increases.This paper contributes to existing literature on the economic consequences of retirement in several ways.Firstly,most previous studies only focus on one perspective of economic responses(e.g.,labor supply and consumption)and tend to ignore the connections between different dimensions.This paper investigates the changes in labor supply,incomes,consumption and inequality and then attempts to include findings in all dimensions into an integrated framework.Secondly,we restudy the classic retirement-consumption puzzle with the latest dataset from China.We find that the consumption expenditures of the Chinese urban population increase rather than decline after retirement.The prevalence of working after retirement could be the main reason why China does not have a retirement-consumption puzzle as developed countries do.Thirdly,compared with previous studies that used annual data,this paper employs monthly data of incomes and consumption expenditures,permitting us to give a more detailed picture of the income-consumption dynamics after retirement.Fourthly,most previous studies conduct their investigations only with the male sample.Understanding women's economic responses is of more importance in China because Chinese women have a higher labor force participation rate and an earlier retirement age.This paper conducts analyses on males and females separately and then compares the gender difference.Lastly,most of existing research employs data collected from a relatively long time ago,so the conclusions lack timeliness,especially for policymaking.In this paper we use the UHS data covering until 2016,which can provide the latest evidence for the academia and policymaking.This paper also has substantial implications for policymaking.First,it demonstrates the heterogeneity in economic responses to retirement,which suggests that the government should consider the different interests of different groups and design a more inclusive and flexible retirement delay plan.Second,this paper also shows the change in consumption structure after retirement,which suggests that the government also should encourage and support the development of industries related to elder consumption.The phenomenon of working after retirement,to some extent,also indicates that many elderly people are still willing to continue to make contributions by participating in social activities.The government is supposed to provide appropriate guidance in this aspect,providing skill training and job information services.Strengthening corresponding laws and policies is also crucial for protecting the rights and interests of relevant individuals.