货币政策重新寻锚:通货膨胀的概念与度量再研究

Re-searching the Anchor for Monetary Policy:The Puzzle of Inflation Concept and Measurement

传统货币政策以消费者价格指数通胀率作为名义锚。但是,消费价格对货币政策调控较弱的反应度与其他典型价格指标形成了鲜明对比。将传统通胀概念与度量拓展到消费者价格之外的维度是否能更好地实现货币政策最终目标尚缺乏科学证据。本文基于我国货币政策“稳物价、促增长”的最终目标构建理论模型,考察通胀调控目标由消费类拓展到非消费类和资产价格类维度之后,货币政策钉住哪种通胀指标组合方式可以最有效地实现货币政策最终目标。同时基于2000—2020年期间的时序数据估计SVAR模型,进而运用反事实仿真方法分析货币政策选择不同通胀调控目标对应的经济动态特征。结果表明:货币政策面临经济增长与价格稳定之间的权衡取舍,货币政策寻锚问题的着力点在于同时考虑消费类和非消费类价格,而资产价格则不宜作为钉住目标纳入通胀度量范畴。

Inflation is a key variable in macroeconomy,as well as the nominal anchor for monetary policies.The measurement of inflation critically determines the timing and direction of monetary policy regulation.Conventional wisdom holds that monetary policies should be adjusted in response to changes in consumer prices(e.g.,consumer price index and CPI).At the same time,the prices of assets,such as real estate,stocks,and funds are increasingly related to the real economy and people's well-being,while the prices of non-consumption components in GDP also profoundly affect the decisions of household and production sectors.Since 2000,the weak response of consumer prices to monetary policy regulation has formed a sharp contrast with other typical price indices.Excluding changes in other price indices from the information set of monetary policymaking may ignore information about future economic situations,resulting in inappropriate timing and degree of monetary policy regulation.Therefore,whether extending the concept and measurement of inflation to changes in other price indices is conducive to achieving the ultimate goal of monetary policies is an important issue.The ultimate goal of the People's Bank of China(China's central bank)in implementing monetary policies is mandated by the Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China to“maintain the stability of the value of the currency and thereby promote economic growth.”Developing a theoretical model of the monetary policy transmission mechanism based on the ultimate goal mandated by the law is the prerequisite for rational analysis of the extension of the concept and measurement of inflation.Based on the ultimate goal of China's monetary policies mandated by the Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China,this paper constructs and estimates an SVAR model of monetary policy transmission featuring endogenous regime switching by incorporating the unique pro-growth feature of China's monetary policies into monetary policy rules.This paper uses quarterly data from 2000 to 2020 to estimate the SVAR model,and then adopts the counterfactual simulation method to conduct an in-depth analysis on the extension of the concept and measurement of inflation from the perspective of optimal goal for monetary policy regulation.The results of the simulation analysis show that the target of monetary policy adjustment for inflation should include both consumption and non-consumption inflation rates.Particularly,quantity-based monetary policies should not ignore the changes in non-consumer price.In addition,the procyclical monetary policies that push up real estate prices do not meet the requirements of long-term economic development in China.Although including the real estate prices into the inflation target will help to stabilize price fluctuations in the period when price stability is particularly emphasized,it will also inhibit economic growth to some extent.Finally,the systematic regulation of monetary policies to changes in financial asset prices is not conducive to stabilizing economic development.Therefore,the key in re-searching the anchor for monetary policies at the current stage is to take into account both consumer and non-consumer prices,while asset prices should not be included in the inflation target of monetary policies.At present,China's monetary policy practice adopts both quantity-and price-based monetary policies.Therefore,it is necessary to extend the concept and measurement of inflation to non-consumer price,and the non-consumer price index actually includes part of house price information.Within the framework of price-based monetary policies,pegging to the CPI indicator may achieve the optimized ultimate goal of regulation.Therefore,in the long run,when China's interest rate liberalization is fully realized and monetary policies are dominated by the adjustment of interest rates,the central bank can consider adopting a strategy of pegging to the CPI inflation rate as an optimal inflation target for regulation.But this situation is not an option for current policymaking.Compared with existing literature,the main difference of this paper lies in three aspects.Firstly,our theoretical model is developed strictly based on the Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China.Secondly,we establish the relationship between the design of monetary policy ultimate goals and that of the regulation system.Finally,we conduct counterfactual policy analysis in the structural vector autoregressive(SVAR)framework.This paper focuses on the extension of the concept and measurement of inflation from the perspective of monetary policy regulation mechanism.We assume that the CPI inflation rate is the only inflation indicator that affects the ultimate goal of the central bank.Future research may investigate how to include richer information into the inflation indicator in the ultimate goal of monetary policies.