美国利率调整和税率调整的影响与我国应对措施研究

Countermeasure Proposals to Alleviate the Impact on China of the U.S. Interest Rate and Tax Rate Adjustments

美国近年来针对经济发展状况频繁调整利率政策与税率政策,这些政策对其他国家有较强的溢出效应,但目前对其传导机理与传导效果尚缺乏深度的理论分析。本文构建了两国的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,在开放经济背景下研究了美国的利率调整(以加息为替代)与税率调整(以减税为替代)对中国经济的影响。结论显示:美国加息会对中国经济产生较大的负面冲击,在短期内会导致中国的产出、资本投入、净出口与就业率出现下降,在长期中,虽然下降趋势有所缓和,但对资本外流与净出口的负面影响非常大;美国减税在短期内对中国经济有负向冲击,但在长期中影响较弱。相应的政策建议是:认真评估美国利率调整的冲击方向、力度和影响,关注国内的通胀水平与进出口,向市场灵活适度的定向提供流动性,增加产出与提高就业率;加强监控,采取必要措施防止资本外逃与净出口下降;减税降费降低企业经营成本,推进经济结构调整;预估可能产生的贸易摩擦与政治矛盾,提前做好防范预案。

The U.S.has made frequent macro policy adjustments in recent years.Nine interest rate increases were initiated in 2015,followed by three interest rate reductions in 2019.Two emergency interest rate cuts were implemented in 2020 to return to the ultra-low interest rate environment.The U.S.began to implement tax reductions in 2018 to reduce costs and promote the recovery of domestic enterprises.Interest rate adjustments and tax rate adjustments are the U.S.government’s responses to its own economic development;however,the adjustments have had a high spillover impact on China.Studying the impact of interest rate adjustments and tax rate adjustments in the U.S.on China is conducive to enriching and improving macroeconomic policy theory during the economic recovery period.It also helps to expand the macroeconomic model framework of China’s opening economy and to conduct scientific evaluation on the comprehensive impact of interest rate and tax rate adjustments in developed countries.The paper can ultimately provide decision-making references for macro-control in China.Few previous studies addressed the compound effects of interest rate adjustments and tax rate adjustments in the U.S.or the spillover effect of U.S.tax rate adjustments on China under the opening economy,and they failed to accurately analyze the fluctuation characteristics of economic variables.Due to the lack of theoretical research on the effect of U.S.interest rate and tax rate policies,it is impossible to put forward targeted policy recommendations.This paper’s innovations are as follows.First,the paper builds a two-state Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model to investigate the compound impact of U.S.interest rate adjustments and tax rate adjustments on China.Second,this paper studies the spillover effect of the U.S.tax rate adjustment policy on China under the opening economy.Third,based on the conclusions obtained from mathematical modeling,the paper proposes policy suggestions that provide decision-making references for financial stability macro-control.This paper constructs a two-state DSGE model to study the impact of interest rate adjustments(increases)and tax rate adjustments(reductions)on China under the opening economy.The conclusion shows that the U.S.interest rate hike has had a strong negative impact on China.Although the U.S.interest rate hike is conducive to the U.S.’s own economic development,it leads to adverse effects on other countries and makes the world economy more uncertain.The U.S.is the world’s largest developed economy,and adjustments to its monetary policy therefore bring a strong spillover effect.The U.S.has possessed power and hegemony for a long time.It aimed at maximizing its own economy and neglected its international responsibilities and obligations,which has led to negative influences to neighboring countries.The U.S.tax reduction policy has had a short-term negative impact,but a weak long-term impact on China.The effects of interest rate adjustments and tax rate adjustments in different directions are partly offset.This paper produces the following policy recommendations.The first recommendation is to implement a more active fiscal policy,promote supply-side structural reform,reduce taxes and fees to increase residents’income,and promote consumption growth.This active fiscal policy would accelerate the construction of free trade zones,develop super large-scale market advantages and domestic demand potential,and build a new development mode of domestic and international dual circulation.The second recommendation is to implement a prudent monetary policy to provide liquidity support for the market flexibly and moderately,reduce the financing cost of the real economy,and improve the resilience and substitutability of the Chinese economy.The prudent monetary policy would promote the process of RMB internationalization,improve the structure of foreign exchange reserves,increase the cost of capital flight,and prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations.The third recommendation is to continue to develop trade exchanges with countries along the Belt and Road,adjust the structure and proportion of foreign trade,and make trade partners more diversified.The final recommendation is that the government should pay more attention to the U.S.’s possible non-market economic intervention measures,strive for a fair market environment,prevent the harm caused by developed countries’radical political interventions and trade policies,and improve the ability to cope with external shocks.