第三方效应、区域贸易协定深化与中国策略:基于协定条款异质性的量化研究

Third-country Effect,In-depth FTA and China Strategy:Quantitative Analysis Based on Heterogeneous Terms

具有水平差异性和垂直自我深化的区域经贸深度一体化正在成为当今国际贸易领域的新现象之一。本文依据自由贸易协定(FTA)条款异质性,构建了完整立体的FTA深度指标测度体系,实证研究了区域贸易协定深化的动因与路径,并基于实证研究结果探讨了我国深度参与区域经贸合作的发展战略。实证研究发现,相比于同质性的FTA,第三方效应对于深度FTA缔结和深化同样具有很好的解释力,但因FTA的异质性也会表现出显著的差异性:(1)第三方效应对覆盖货物贸易深度自由化或经济合作类条款的FTA缔结与深化具有较强解释力,但对覆盖服务贸易、投资或是政治性、科研合作性质条款的FTA缔结和深化中的作用会受到明显削弱;(2)相较于"北—北"国家对,国家对保有深度FTA数量差异的负面影响在"南—北"国家对中会受到明显削弱;(3)第三方效应随着年份的推移,也表现出逐步弱化的趋势。基于经验研究结论,本文进一步回顾了中国参与区域经贸深度合作的历史与现状,为我国现行的包括"一带一路"倡议在内的近期一系列区域经贸合作重大举措提供了理论基础和经验证据。基于本文的结论,建议在区域经贸合作领域采用"先量后质""以量促质""重点突破"的发展思路,先通过推进浅层和宽松的贸易自由化实现国际经贸合作关系网的快速延展,针对既有FTA有选择地尝试提升深度水平,探索并推广"中国文本"。

The dramatic growth of free trade agreements(FTAs)has become one of the most remarkable phenomena in international trade since 1990.It is worth noting that in addition to the increase in FTAs,there are two features not to be ignored.First,there is an increasingly horizontal differentiation of in-depth terms across newly concluded FTAs.Second,there is increasingly vertical differentiation of in-depth terms across existing FTAs.Therefore,member countries are achieving deep integration through the conclusions of FTAs with in-depth terms in both horizontal and vertical dimensions.The above mentioned integration has undoubtedly become a significant new phenomenon in the current international trade.There are only few studies on the heterogeneity of in-depth FTA at present.We hope to provide theoretical explanations for the dynamics of in-depth FTA by identifying the deepening of FTAs and exploring their motivations.The main difference between the existing literature and this paper is that the latter extends the research framework of FTA from a qualitative analysis(e.g.,the issue of the existence of FTA)to a quantitative one(e.g.,the issue of in-depth FTA).On this basis,we explored feasible plans and practical strategies for China’s participation in international cooperation.We discussed the motivations and deepening paths of regional trade liberalization from the perspective of in-depth FTA.Based on the results of our empirical studies,we gave significant policy suggestions for China’s deepening participation and cooperation in FTAs.Based on the in-depth terms of FTAs,we constructed a quantitative measurement framework for in-depth FTA,covering both static and dynamic indicators.We find that the third-country effect can explain the conclusion of in-depth FTA in general.However,the above effect,which depends on members’experience on FTAs with third-party countries,shows its heterogeneity,that is,there is a higher probability of the conclusion of in-depth FTA and a higher degree of depth of existing FTAs between a specific country pair,when both of the member countries have a larger accumulation of between third-party countries and them.On the contrary,for those in a specific country pair,the effect is reversed when there is a greater gap in the number of accumulated FTAs between third-party countries and them.The third-country effect is more pronounced in FTAs covering in-depth terms of trade liberalization and economic cooperation,while the effect is weaker in FTAs including terms of service trade,investment,political issues,and research cooperation.Similarly,the above effect is more pronounced in FTAs concluded between North-South countries,relative to those between North-North country pairs.In this paper,we assessed the practice of China’s participation in deepening FTAs.Our empirical results provide a set of evidence on the rationality of China’s regional cooperation measures,e.g.,the Belt and Road Initiatives.Meanwhile,our simulation results are greatly consistent with the main idea of China’s ongoing practice of regional cooperation.Base on counterfactual simulations,we put forward a three-step strategy for China‘s in-depth FTA strategy:firstly,Japan,Russia and countries along with the Belt and Road;secondly,Australia,New Zealand,and sub-Saharan African countries;and thirdly,in-depth regional integration.We suggest China’s FTA strategy should be implemented under the following principles.(1)"Quantity takes priority over quality".(2)"Quality is promoted through quality accumulation".(3)"Breakthroughs start in key areas".In short,exploration and promotion of the"Chinese text,"as well as improvement of existing in-depth FTA,should be conducted through the benchmark FTA framework in the process of realizing the expansion of the international cooperation network.The possible marginal contributions are reflected in the following three aspects.First,we are the first paper that proposed a systematic framework for the study of in-depth FTA by providing a set of measurements for in-depth FTA and two indicators describing in-depth FTA in both horizontal and vertical dimensions.Second,we extend the research of Baier et al.(2014)by exploring the drivers of in-depth FTA and their heterogeneity and by tracing the deepening path of existing FTAs.Third,we put forward a gradual deepening path for developing countries to participate in international integration,providing empirical evidences for a new path towards trade liberalization.