信息与城市化——基于跨国数据的实证研究

Accelerating Urbanization Explained——The Role of Information

本文首次揭示近半个多世纪以来城市化进程在全球范围内加速的现象。我们构建一个两部门一般均衡模型,论证信息与城市化率的正相关关系。使用互联网使用率作为信息的代理变量,基于109个非经济合作组织国家或地区1960—2013年间的数据进行实证分析。结果显示:(1)常规城市化决定因素不能解释城市化加速现象;(2)作为信息技术代理变量的互联网使用率可以解释大部分的城市化加速;(3)主要结论对于使用不同地区样本、不同控制变量以及不同代理变量都是稳健的。

In this paper,we reveal and substantiate that urbanization has accelerated in recent decades.We propose a simple two-sector general equilibrium model,demonstrating the potential effect of information on the urbanization rate.The theoretical prediction is then verified by employing cross-country panel regressions using 1960–2013 data from 109 non-OECD countries.Results confirm that:(1)the conventional drivers of urbanization cannot account for this newly discovered phenomenon;(2)Internet penetration as a proxy of information can explain much of the acceleration trend in urbanization;and(3)our findings are robust to different control variables,different regions and different information proxies.