中国经济波动的持久性成分高吗?

Are China’s Economic Fluctuations Permanent?

经济波动的持久性是重要的问题,但缺乏有关中国的研究。本文首先构建了一个不完全信息模型,结果显示:中国TFP的持久性成分高于美国;持久性冲击对中国产出的解释比重高于美国。接着本文扩展出一个具有NK特征的DSGE模型,持久性冲击的解释效果大幅弱化,但模型可能存在误设。最后,本文在模型中引入Markov机制,结果表明中国持久性成分在两种状态下都更高。基本结论在完全信息模型、不同效用函数和校准参数下依然成立。

The economic fluctuations’ permanence is an important issue, but there’s few serious literature about China. We estimate an imperfect information model. Both the China’s TFP’s permanent component and the contribution of permanent shock to output fluctuation are higher than those of the USA. Then we build a DSGE model with various NK features, and the permanent shock is greatly weakened, but the model may be misspecified. Finally, we introduce a Markov-Switching regime into the model. The permanent components for China are higher in both states. The basic conclusions still hold under alternative specification.