需求变化与中国劳动力就业波动——基于全球多区域投入产出模型的实证分析

Demand Change and China’s Employment Fluctuation ——Based on Empirical Analysis on Global Multi- Regional Input-Output Model

基于全球多区域投入产出模型,本文运用分层式结构分解法测算了1995—2014年国内外需求变化对中国劳动力就业波动的影响。研究显示:国内需求变化是就业增长的主要动力,国外需求变化在2001—2007年间显著促进了国内就业增长,拉动的就业增长是国内需求的2/5,但2007年后其重要性不断下降。进一步分解显示:国内需求中,需求水平是就业增长的关键因素,需求结构影响较小且呈负向拉动作用;国外需求中,需求水平和需求结构共同影响国内就业增长。

Based on global multi-regional input-output model, we study the effects of change in domestic and foreign demand on China’s employment fluctuation during the period of 1995-2014. We find that change in domestic demand was the major factor to promote China’s employment;change in foreign demand promoted China’s employment remarkably between 2001 and 2007, which was two-fifth of domestic demand, but its importance was falling later. We also find that the level of domestic demand was crucial to China’s employment growth, while the structure had less and negative effect;both the level and the structure of foreign demand had effect on China’s employment growth.