产业信贷政策对于房地产企业债务的影响——基于银行业359号“限贷”文件的准自然实验分析

The Impact of Industrial Credit Supply Exogenous Shock on Real Estate Corporate Debt——Quasi-Natural Experiment Analysis of Bank Industry No. 359 “Limit Loan”Policy

本文基于2007年人民银行、银监会对房地产企业限贷政策的外生冲击事件,使用双重差分方法进行了分析。研究发现,整体上房地产企业的银行借款规模减少了。此外,限贷政策导致房地产企业借道影子银行体系进行融资,融资成本也相应显著增加。国有房地产企业融资行为受到影响较小,而非国有房地产企业融资成本显著增加。相对于大企业,小企业融资成本增加更加明显。结合理论分析和实证结果,本文给出了相应理论解释和政策建议。

Based on the exogenous shocks of the Restriction Loan Policy adopted by PBC and CBRC for real estate firms in 2007, we analyze the effect of credit supply shock by DID approach. We find that bank loans reduced. In addition, the credit limit policy promoted financing through the shadow banking system, which caused debt cost to increase. Financing cost of the state-owned real estate enterprises is less affected. The financing costs of non-state-owned enterprises increased significantly. Compared with large enterprises, small enterprises financing costs increased more significantly. Our research has important research and policy implications.