区域服务贸易协定与服务出口二元边际——基于国际经验的实证分析

Services RTAs and the Margins of Services Exports——Empirical Analysis Based on International Experience

本文采用Chaney (2008)二元边际引力模型分析框架和泊松拟极大似然估计技术,对区域服务贸易协定的差异化服务出口二元边际促进效应进行实证检验。实证结果显示,区域服务贸易协定对服务出口二元边际均有显著的促进作用,但是对集约边际的影响程度略大于广延边际。动态性分析表明,协定在执行后的8年间对集约边际均有显著正面影响,但是仅执行当期对广延边际有显著促进效应。进一步研究发现,协定对服务出口二元边际的影响存在明显的国别差异和行业差异。此外,本文还考察了协定本身的异质性以及各缔约国的既有制度约束对区域服务贸易协定服务出口边际促进效应的差异化影响。

In this paper, we firstly construct the binary margin gravity model of services trade based on the heterogeneous firm theory of Chaney(2008). Then, we use the PPML regression method, notified database of services RTAs and bilateral services exports data at the level of industries of 70 economies from 2000 to 2012 to explore the differential(partial) effects of services RTAs on both intensive and extensive margins of trade in services. The empirical result shows that services RTAs have significant promoting effects on intensive and extensive margins of services exports. We find a novel differential "timing" of the two margins’ effects with intensive-margin effects lasting longer time than extensive-margin effects. We also make a detailed analysis of structural characteristics of the margins of services exports among different countries and industry groups, and examine how the heterogeneity of services RTAs and the institutional conditions of contracting states impact the promotion mechanism of services RTAs on the margins of services exports.