风险态度、时间偏好与经济波动福利效应——基于离散跨期模型的数值分析

Risk Attitude, Time Preference and Welfare Effect of Economic Fluctuations——A Numerical Analysis with a Discrete Intertemporal Model

本文分析了不同偏好参数下的经济波动福利成本,通过在离散跨期模型的框架下进行数值分析,得到以下新发现:首先,大多数时候风险规避系数与福利成本负相关;其次,当风险规避系数较小时,时间折现系数和福利成本负相关,当风险规避系数较大时,时间折现系数与福利成本正相关;最后,经济波动对不同个体产生的福利效应有正有负,即有人受益、有人受损。数值结果还表明,时间折现系数较小且风险规避系数较小的个体,是经济波动中的弱势群体。

Based on a discrete dynamic model, we study the welfare effects of economic fluctuations. The main findings are as follows: First, in most cases, welfare cost of economic fluctuations has a negative correlation with risk aversion coefficient. Second, the welfare cost and the time discount parameter are negative correlated when risk aversion is high, while they are positive correlated when risk aversion is low. Third, the welfare cost may be negative for some agents. In addition, those who show lower risk aversion and smaller time discount suffer from the worse welfare costs of economic uncertainty.