宏观政策不确定性与企业现金持有

Macro-Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Cash Holdings

本文利用1999—2013年中国上市公司的数据,从省级党代会召开的角度研究宏观政策不确定性对企业现金持有的影响。实证结果发现,省级党代会召开的前一年和当年,宏观政策不确定性较高,企业增加现金持有,省级党代会召开的后一年,企业现金持有水平降低;民营企业、经理人持股比例高的企业以及市场化程度低地区的企业对宏观政策不确定性更为敏感。进一步的研究还发现,企业应对宏观政策不确定性的方法是增加短期借款比例;省级党代会召开的后一年,企业会将前两年增持的现金资产投入更高收益的项目中,投资支出相应增加。

Using pooled cross-sectional data of A-share listed firms in China from 1999 to 2013, we aim to examine how macro-policy uncertainty influences corporate cash holdings from the perspective of Provincial Communist Party Congress. We find that firms tend to have a higher level of cash holdings in the preceding year and in the year of the Congress and a lower level of cash holdings after the Congress. The effects of macro-policy uncertainty are amplified when ultimate controller is non-government, when managerial ownership is larger and when the firms are located in provinces with higher marketization index. Further results show that firms tend to increase short-term bank debt ratio in response of macro-policy uncertainty, while they invest more in the year after the Congress.