“双赤字”还是“双重分叉”?——开放经济环境下中国积极财政政策冲击效应研究

“Twin Deficit” or “Twin Divergence”?——A Research on the Effectiveness of China’s Active Fiscal Policies in an Open Economy

本文建立10变量中型BVAR模型,实证分析在开放环境下积极财政政策的宏观经济效应,综合利用Blanchard and Perotti(2002)方法和符号约束识别法识别积极财政政策冲击。本文发现:在积极财政政策的冲击下,财政盈余和经常项目同向减少("双赤字"),人民币有效汇率升值;居民投资呈现高度显著的正向反应而消费和产出的反应受到积极财政政策内容的重要影响。本文的理论启示:既要重视积极财政政策对居民投资的"挤入效应",又要考虑政府消费和政府投资对居民消费的异质性影响。

Building a 10-variable VAR including sufficient important macroeconomic variables, synthetically utilizing Blanchard & Perotti(2002) method and a mixed identification method based on the macroeconomic policies in China,we try to identify active fiscal expenditure shocks. We find that: facing government expenditure shock, current account balance deteriorates, the RMB effective rate appreciates, investment shows positive responses, particularly, consumption’s responses depend on the composition of government expenditure. These outcomes mean that both "Crowding-in Effect" on investment and heterogeneous effects on consumption and output should be considered when designing mechanisms of fiscal expenditure shock.