金融发展与城市规模——理论和来自中国城市的证据

Financial Development and City Size——Theory and Evidence from China

从"资本技能互补"假设出发,本文从理论和实证两个方面研究了金融发展与城市规模的关系。理论分析指出,金融发展程度较高的城市易于使用资本进行生产,因而对技能劳动的相对需求较大,这在短期内会提高技能溢价、长期将扩大城市规模。实证研究发现,金融发展确实与城市规模正相关,并且这一结果十分稳健。金融发展提高了教育回报率,而后者对扩大城市规模有积极作用,因此教育回报率被认为是金融发展影响城市规模的渠道。

Based on "Capital-Skill Complementarity" hypothesis, we explore the relation between financial development and city size both theoretically and empirically. In theory, cities with high-level financial development use more capital in production and therefore demand more skilled labor which is supposed to be complementary to capital. This raises skill premium immediately and increases population size later. Empirical analysis confirms the positive correlation between financial development and city size, which is robust to alternative specifications and controls. We also identify returns to education as a channel because financial development improves skill premium and the latter boosts city size.