人民币国际化“双循环”程度测算:模型与实证

Research of "Double Cycle" Degree of RMB Internationalization:Model and Empirical Study

文章在利率平价理论思路上,运用在岸人民币汇率和不同地区离岸人民币汇率之间的差异判断了国内与国际市场人民币国际化循环程度,并通过BVAR模型讨论了人民币国际金融市场之间的循环程度,全面考虑了不确定因素对人民币国际化的冲击。文章得到了以下几个方面结论:首先,从人民币国内与国际市场流通来看,人民币国际化循环程度有限,且整体趋势在下降。其次,自从加入SDR以来,所有样本国内与国际金融市场之间人民币国际化循环程度都符合原假设,说明国内与国际人民币国际化循环网络已经形成。再次,对人民币国际金融市场而言,香港起到核心作用,对其他国际金融市场均存在明显冲击作用,而其他国际金融市场之间相互影响不明显,人民币国际市场循环网络已经初具雏形。

On the theory of the Interest Rate Parity,the paper compares the exchange rate’s difference between the RMB onshore and offshore in different areas,to judge the current situation of"Double Cycle"degree of RMB internationalization.On this basis,this paper discusses the mutual influence between the RMB offshore financial centers though BVAR model,and comprehensively considers the impact of uncertain factors on RMB internationalization.The paper gets the following conclusions:From the perspective of RMB domestic and international market circulation,the degree of RMB internationalization circulation is limited,and the overall trend is declining.Secondly,since joining the SDR,the degree of RMB internationalization circulation between all domestic and international financial markets of all samples conforms to the original hypothesis,indicating that the domestic and international RMB internationalization circulation network has been formed.Thirdly,for international RMB financial markets,Hong Kong plays a central role and has a significant impact on other international financial markets,while other international financial markets have little interaction with each other.The RMB international market circulation network has begun to take shape.