中国县域城镇化的基础、趋势与推进思路

Foundation, Trend and Promotion of County’s Urbanization in China

县域是乡村振兴、城镇化和城乡融合发展的前沿阵地。本文分析了中国县域城镇化的演进、趋势、特征、总体思路与重点任务,主要结论包括:(1)近年来,县域平均人口维持在45万人左右,县城平均人口从2010年8.50万人逐步增长到2019年10.47万人,同期县城人口占县域人口的比重从19.24%提高到23.13%。(2)据估计,县城平均人口将逐步提高到2025年约11万人和2035年12万人,县城人口占总城镇人口的比重稳定在17%—18%左右;建制镇建成区平均人口将从2019年0.89万人增至2025年约0.9万人,到2035年降至0.86万人左右,同期建制镇建成区人口占总城镇人口的比重逐步降至15%左右。(3)县域城镇化主要表现出县城人口密度较低、县城流动人口落户意愿较低、县域经济发展水平不高、公共服务有待优化、县城建设水平快速提高等特征。(4)未来推进县域城镇化,要以新发展理念为引领,坚持高质量发展、多元化发展、协调发展、共享发展,积极提升县城吸引力、吸纳力、承载力、辐射带动力,以此全面提高县域发展质量、构建县域新型工农城乡关系。

County is the front of rural vitalization,urbanization and urban-rural integration.This paper analyzes the evolution,trend,characteristics,strategy and tasks of county’s urbanization.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)in recent years,the average population of the county has maintained at about 450000,and the average population of the county-town has gradually increased from 85000 in 2010 to 104700 in 2019,and in the same period,the proportion of the county-town population has increased from 19.24%to 23.13%.(2)it is estimated that the average population size of the county-town will gradually increase to110000 in 2025 and 120000 in 2035,and the proportion of the county-town population in the total urban population will be stable at about 17-18%;the average population of the built-up area of the town will increase from 8900 in 2019 to about 90000 in2025,and will decrease to about 8600 in 2035,and the proportion of the built-up area of the town in the total urban population in the same period would gradually decreased to about 15%.(3)The county’s urbanization has showed some characters,including low population density in county town,low willingness of settle down,low level of economic development,public services need to be optimized and the level of construction in counties has improved rapidly.(4)To promote county urbanization in the future,we should be guided by the new development concept,adhere to high-quality development,diversified development,coordinated development and shared development,actively enhance the attraction,absorption capacity,carrying capacity and central capacity of county-town,comprehensively improve the development quality of county,and promote the urban-rural integration.