系统性金融风险的动态演进——一个制度金融学的分析范式

The Dynamic Evolution of Systemic Financial Risk——An Analytical Paradigm of Institutional Finance

本文以制度金融学为分析范式,结合我国金融改革的特征,以动态过程视角解释我国系统性金融风险的演进机制。分析表明:分工与专业化形成的市场网络负效应、制度外延性和内涵性缺陷以及金融体系发展会因交易成本的存在内生出系统性金融风险,而旨在消除系统性金融风险的制度变迁,会因其变迁方式和结果的不同成为新的系统性金融风险的根源。我国系统性金融风险是在经济金融制度供给下,各个利益集团博弈形成的一种特殊均衡状态,有市场不稳定性导致的内生性风险,有改革成本在不同利益群体之间不均衡分布形成的体制性风险,也有市场与政府互动形成的博弈失衡风险。因此,正确认识我国经济金融体制改革与系统性金融风险的关系,寻找政府与市场的制度均衡是化解我国系统性金融风险的关键。

Taking institutional finance as the analytical paradigm and combining with the characteristics of China’s financial reform,this paper explains the evolution mechanism of China’s systemic financial risk from the perspective of dynamic process.Analysis shows that the negative effect of the market network formed by division of labor and specialization,the externality and connotation defects of the institution,and the development of financial system will produce systemic financial risks due to the existence of transaction costs.The institutional changes aimed at eliminating systemic risks will become the source of the new systemic risks due to the difference of change methods and results.China’s systemic financial risk is a special equilibrium state formed by the game of various interest groups under the framework of economic and financial institution including the endorisk caused by market instability,the institutional risk of the uneven distribution of reform costs among different interest groups,and the risk of game imbalance formed by the interaction between the market and the government.Therefore,correctly understanding the relationship between China’s economic and financial system reform and systemic financial risks,and finding the institutional equilibrium between the government and the market is the key to resolve China’s systemic financial risks.