金融改革与地区产业结构升级——来自金融改革试验区设立的准自然实验

Financial Reform and Industrial Structure Upgrading——From the Quasi-Natural Experiment Established By the Financial Reform Pilot Zone

本文以金融改革试验区设立作为准自然实验,基于2003-2016年中国279个地级市数据探讨金融改革政策对地区产业升级的影响。基于多期DID法的实证研究表明,金融改革试验区的设立显著促进了地区产业结构高度化与产业结构合理化,但金融改革影响产业结构升级的政策效果存在明显的区域差异,东部地区金融改革对产业结构升级的促进作用大于中西部地区。安慰剂检验和考虑政策叠加的影响后,结论依然成立。机制分析表明,提高微观层面的信贷资源配置效率和生产性服务业集聚水平是金融改革促进地区产业升级的中介传递渠道。拓展性研究表明,不同金融改革试验区对产业结构升级的影响存在不同的溢出效应。

Taking the establishment of a financial reform pilot zone as a quasi-natural experiment,based on the data of279 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016,this paper explores the impact of financial reform policies on regional industrial upgrading.Empirical research based on the multi-period DID method shows that the establishment of the financial reform pilot zone has significantly promoted the advancement of the regional industrial structure and the rationalization of the industrial structure.However,there are obvious regional differences in the effect of financial reforms on the upgrading of industrial structure.The promotion of industrial upgrading is obviously greater than that of the central and western regions.The placebo test and PSM analysis both proved the robustness of the conclusion.Mechanism analysis shows that improving the allocation efficiency of credit resources at the micro level and the agglomeration of producer services are the intermediary channels for financial reform to promote regional industrial upgrading.Extensive research shows that different reform financial reform pilot zones have different spillover effects on the impact of industrial structure upgrading.