贸易政策不确定性与公司资本结构调整速度

Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Speed of Corporate Capital Structure Adjustment

本文以沪深A股上市公司为样本,并利用Steven等(2019)构建的"中国贸易政策不确定性指数",研究了贸易政策不确定性对公司资本结构调整速度的影响,并探讨其作用机制。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性对公司资本结构调整速度具有显著的抑制作用。中介效应检验表明,贸易政策不确定性上升通过提升公司不确定性规避,进而影响公司资本结构调整速度。进一步研究发现,贸易政策不确定性对公司资本结构调整速度的影响在不同融资约束程度的公司中具有显著差异,但在不同产权性质的公司中差异并不显著。此外,贸易政策不确定性对公司资本结构调整速度的影响还与行业竞争度和行业周期性等行业因素有关。因此,在当前逆全球化背景下,各国和地区应该加快多边贸易谈判以消除不确定性,为企业决策创造稳定的外部环境。

Based on A-share listed companies and using"China’s Trade policy uncertainty Index"constructed by Steven et al.(2019),this paper studies the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the speed of company capital structure adjustment and discusses its mechanism.This paper finds that the trade policy uncertainty has a significant restraining effect on the speed of company capital structure adjustment.Mediation test shows that the rising trade policy uncertainty affects the speed of corporate capital structure adjustment by promoting the company’s risk aversion and inhibiting the company’s investment expansion.This paper also finds that the effect of trade policy uncertainty on the speed of corporate capital structure adjustment is significantly different among companies with different financing constraints,but not among companies with different property rights.In addition,the influence of trade policy uncertainty on the speed of corporate capital structure adjustment is also related to industry factors such as product market competition and industry periodicity.Therefore,under the current background of anti-globalization,countries and regions should speed up multilateral trade negotiations to eliminate uncertainties and create a stable external environment for enterprises to make decisions.