存款准备金制度的过去、现在和将来

The Past, Present and Future of Reserve Requirements

本文首先系统梳理和总结了存款准备金制度的发展历史和现状。由于货币政策操作框架发生改变,存款准备金制度的弊端逐渐显现,再加上存款准备金制度的功能被替代,西方国家已基本放弃使用存款准备金工具。之后,对存款准备金制度的研究表明,存款准备金制度不仅能够维护金融稳定,而且还能调节银行信贷、货币供应量和金融市场流动性,抑制通货膨胀、资本流入和本币升值。然而,存款准备金制度同样存在政策调整的影响过于剧烈、对信贷的影响存在不确定性、造成无谓损失以及可能不利于金融稳定等缺陷。中国存款准备金制度已不适合未来货币政策调控的需要,主要是因为:一是存款准备金制度的功能已经弱化;二是存款准备金制度调节信贷的有效性趋于下降;三是存款准备金制度给银行及企业带来的负担明显上升;四是存款准备金制度运行的经济环境已经发生较大变化。未来应大胆调降法定存款准备金率至更低水平,继续深入推进货币政策框架向价格型调控转型,同时为基础货币投放方式的变革做好准备。

This article first systematically sorts out and summarizes the development history and current status of reserve requirements.Due to changes in the operating framework of monetary policy,the drawbacks of reserve requirements have gradually emerged.In addition,the functions of the reserve requirements have been replaced.Western countries have basically abandoned the use of deposit reserve tools.After that,research on the reserve requirements shows that it can not only maintain financial stability,but also regulate bank credit,money supply,and financial market liquidity.In addition,it can suppress inflation,capital inflows and the appreciation of the local currency.However,reserve requirements also suffer from deficiencies such as excessive policy adjustments,uncertain effects on credit,unnecessary losses,and possible disadvantages to financial stability.China’s reserve requirements are no longer suitable for the needs of future monetary policy regulation.Firstly,the function of reserve requirements has been weakened;secondly,the effectiveness of reserve requirements to adjust credit tends to decline;thirdly,the burden imposed by reserve requirements on banks and enterprises has risen significantly;fourthly,the economic environment in which the reserve requirements operates has undergone major changes.In the future,the central bank should boldly lower reserve requirements to a lower level,continue to further promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework to pricebased regulation,and be prepared for the reform of the base currency delivery.