人工智能发展对产业全要素生产率的影响——一个基于中国制造业的经验研究

The Influence of Artificial Intelligence Development on Industrial Total Factor Productivity——An Empirical Research Based on Manufacturing Industries in China

人工智能的快速发展与应用使得经济学家的"生产率焦虑症"日益严重,即人工智能发展是否在沿着正确的方向显著提高产业生产率、促进就业、实现繁荣。本文在熊彼特创新模型中纳入两类人工智能研发,分析了政府介入关键核心领域人工智能研发的重要性。本文经验研究发现,现阶段人工智能发展促进了纺织服装和通用设备等传统制造业的全要素生产率提升,但对医药制造、计算机和仪器仪表制造这三个高端制造业的TFP提升没有显著作用。本文具有深刻的政策含义,纯市场竞争条件下企业为寻求短期利益而过度发展自动化技术,导致替代效应大于生产率效应,政府有必要干预人工智能研发资源配置,完善关键核心领域人工智能研发的配套政策,才能实现社会生产力的整体跃升。

With the rapid development and application of artificial intelligence,the"productivity anxiety"of economists is becoming increasingly serious,that is,whether the development of artificial intelligence is significantly improving industrial productivity,promoting employment and achieving prosperity in the right direction.In this paper,we introduce two types of artificial intelligence research and development into Schumpeter innovation model,and analyze the importance of government intervention in artificial intelligence research and development in key core areas.The paper finds that:at this stage,the development of artificial intelligence promotes the TFP of traditional manufacturing industries,such as textile clothing and general equipment manufacturing industries,but has no significant effect on the TFP of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,computers industry,and measuring instruments and meters manufacturing industry.This article has profound policy implications,under the condition of pure market competition,enterprises excessively develop automation technology in order to seek short-term benefits,resulting in substitution effect greater than productivity effect.It is necessary for the government to intervene in the allocation of artificial intelligence R&D resources and improve the supporting policies of artificial intelligence R&D in key core areas,so as to realize the overall leap of social productivity.