经济发展、劳动力市场转型与农民工分化

Economic Development,Labor Market Transformation and Differentiation of Migrant Workers

我国经济已经进入新发展阶段,农民工是提升城市化水平的主力,需要及时把握劳动力市场转型和农民工的情况变化。基于全国农村固定观察点数据和国家统计局农民工监测调查数据,并结合笔者2008年以来的实地调研资料,本文的主要发现是:农村剩余劳动力已不是"无限供给",农民工总量的增速开始显著放缓甚至将出现停滞;新冠肺炎疫情对农民工数量有影响但属于可控范围;农民工群体年龄结构老化,新生代农民工占比明显提高;由于就业机会和工资水平在区域间趋于均衡,农民工省内就业成为主体;随着城乡统一劳动力市场和公平竞争就业制度逐步建立,近年来我国外出农民工工资和城镇非私营单位职工工资增长率的波动趋势开始大体一致;2014年以来,农民工实际落户规模未达预期,户籍制度改革已然滞后。本文认为,我国的农民工现象不会一直存在。未来的研究重点,应包含如何有效推行户籍制度改革、退休农民工养老、继续开发人口红利等问题。本文的政策建议是:在农民工分化的前提下,进一步消除显性的和隐性的城乡劳动力流动制度障碍,促进农民工有效融入城市,保护农民工在农村的合法权益。

China’s economy has entered the new development stage,and as migrant workers are the main force to improve the level of urbanization,we need to grasp the adjustment of the labor market and changes in the situation of migrant workers.Based on the national rural fixed point data and migrant workers monitoring survey data,combined with the author’s field survey data,this paper finds some new changes of migrant workers.The rural surplus labor force is not"unlimited supply",and the growth of the total number of migrant workers began to slow down significantly or even stagnate.The COVID-19 affects the number of migrant workers but is controllable.Migrant workers are getting old,and the proportion of the new generation of migrant workers increased significantly.As the employment opportunities and wage levels tend to be balanced among regions,migrant workers working within their home province has taken up the majority of employment.With the gradual establishment of a unified urban-rural labor market and fair competition employment system,the fluctuation trend of migrant workers’wages and the growth rate of urban non-private sector workers’wages in China has been basically the same.Since 2014,the scale of the actual settlement of migrant workers has not reached the expected level,and the registered residence system reform has lagged behind.This paper argues that the phenomenon of migrant workers in China will not always exist.Future research should include the effective implementation of the registered residence system reform,retired migrant workers’pension and service,and continuing to utilize demographic dividends.The policy recommendations are as follows.Under the premise of the differentiation of migrant workers,we should eliminate the explicit and implicit institutional barriers of rural labor mobility,promote the integration of migrant workers with cities,and protect their legitimate rights and interests in rural areas.