平均通胀目标制:理论逻辑与政策前瞻

Average Inflation Targeting: Theoretical Logics and Policy Discussions

美联储2020年将其货币政策从弹性通胀目标制转向平均通胀目标制,这是美国对通胀目标制的适应性调整。本文回顾美国实施平均通胀目标制的政策背景,重点对平均通胀目标制的政策框架及未来可能的政策举措进行分析,同时对平均通胀目标制的潜在不确定性进行剖析。平均通胀目标制以回顾性与弥补性作为政策逻辑,采用盯住平均通胀目标值进行物价跨期调整,以实现复胀目标及充分就业。潜在增长率下降、自然利率下行、低利率或零利率约束以及磁滞效应等是美国实施平均通胀目标制的政策背景。平均通胀目标制仍实行"双目标"政策框架,但更强调充分就业,在坚持利率为核心工具的同时将更多采用量化宽松政策、前瞻性指引、扭转操作或收益率曲线控制等非常规货币政策,以实现物价阶段性"超调"及填补失业缺口。但是,平均通胀目标制可能高估其对菲利普斯曲线扁平化调整的有效性,并低估结构因素、市场预期黏性及国别差异性,同时,央行资产负债表操作潜藏重大金融风险。平均通胀目标制具有负面外溢效应,而新兴经济体处于更为被动的地位。中国需关注美国货币政策调整,内外统筹、深化改革、防范风险,保障金融稳定,有效促进双循环。

The monetary policy framework of the US Federal Reserve System has shifted from the flexible inflation targeting to average inflation targeting(AIT)since 2020.The AIT is a history-dependent and makeup-based monetary policy framework.It adopts the anchor of pegging to the average inflation target to adjust prices across various periods,so as to achieve its mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability.The decline of potential growth rate,the decline of natural interest rate,the constraint of Zero Lower Bound and the hysteresis effect are the policy background of the implementation of AIT in the United States.The AIT still implements the Fed’s dual mandate,but more emphasis is placed on full employment.While adhering to the interest rate as the core tool,it will adopt more unconventional monetary toolkits such as quantitative easing,forward guidance,and twist operation,so as to achieve periodic"overshooting"of inflation and fill the unemployment gap.However,the AIT may overestimate its function of flattening the Phillips curve,and underestimate the structural constraints,market expectation stickiness and differences across countries.Meanwhile,the central bank’s balance sheet operation hides significant financial risks.The AIT has a negative spillover effect,while emerging economies are in a more fragile position.China needs to pay attention to the evolution of the monetary policy framework of the United States and other countries,make internal and external coordination,deepen financial reforms,prevent potential risks and ensure financial stability,and effectively promote dual circulations.