供给侧结构性改革下的积极财政政策效果——兼论货币政策锚的选择

Effects of Active Fiscal Policy in the Context of Supply-Side Structural Reform——On the Choice of Anchors for Monetary Policy

本文通过构建一个嵌入结构性财政政策,包含两类家庭、劳动中介、厂商、中央银行、财政部门的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,基于供给侧结构性改革下中国实施积极财政政策与稳健货币政策的宏观调控组合,比较分析了各类积极财政政策工具的宏观经济效应,考察了货币政策锚的选择对各类财政政策工具引致的长期福利损失的影响。结果表明,在短期,增加消费性财政支出与降低劳动收入税率政策对宏观经济的刺激作用最明显,但同时也应留意其导致政府债务风险上升的弊端;而在长期,则需注重发挥生产性财政支出政策对中国经济行稳致远的保障作用。此外,积极财政政策的实施时间一旦过长,其长期效果将受削弱并对宏观经济产生不利影响,为减轻其引致的长期经济波动与福利损失,稳健的货币政策在微调中应注重以物价稳定为锚。

By developing a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(NK-DSGE)model with structural fiscal policies,which consists of two types of households,labor intermediaries,firms,central banks and ministry of finance,and considering the combination of active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy in the context of China’s supply-side structural reform,this paper compares the macroeconomic effect of various active fiscal policies and investigates the impact of the choice of anchors for monetary policy on the long-run welfare loss caused by various fiscal policy instruments.This study finds that policies of increasing consumption-oriented fiscal expenditure and reducing labor income tax have the most significant stimulating effect on the macroeconomy in the short-run,but we should pay attention to the disadvantages that lead to the rise of government debt risk simultaneously.In the long run,productive fiscal expenditure policy should play a role in safeguarding the stability and long-term development of China’s economy.In addition,once the implementation of positive fiscal policy lasts for too long,its long-term effect will be weakened and it will have adverse effects on the macroeconomy.In order to reduce the long-term economic fluctuations and welfare losses caused by expansionary fiscal policy,a prudent monetary policy should focus on price stability as the anchor in fine-tuning operation.