新发展阶段中国经济发展关键节点的判断和认识

Investigating and Understanding the Key Nodes of China’s Economic Development in the New Development Stage

"十四五"时期中国将全面开启建设社会主义现代化国家新征程,进入一个新发展阶段。新发展阶段中国将经历跨越"中等收入陷阱"、人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平等经济发展的关键节点。针对这些经济发展的关键问题,本文在回顾"中等收入陷阱"的概念和世界银行高、低收入经济体标准的制定和调整基础上,讨论了"中等发达国家水平"概念的含义,并测算了中等发达国家水平的具体指标。结合对中国未来经济增长潜力的预测,本文对党的十九届五中全会提出的第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标进行了分析。研究显示,中国完全有能力在"十四五"末达到现行的高收入国家标准;到2035年实现经济总量或人均国内生产总值翻一番,人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平;到2050年我国人均国内生产总值将达到美国的40%以上。应注意的是,本文认为"中等发达国家水平"并不能完全理解为"发达国家中等水平",需区分两者的不同含义。

During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,China will start the new journey of building a modern socialist country and enter a new stage of development.In the new stage of development,China will experience the key nodes of economic development,such as crossing the"middle income trap"and the country’s per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries.This paper reviews the concept of the"middle income trap"and the adjustment of the World Bank’s high and low income standards,discusses the meaning of the concept of"level of moderately developed countries"and investigates the specific position where it should be.Combined with the forecast of China’s future economic growth potential,this paper analyzes the 14th Five-Year Plan and 2035 long-term targets proposed by the Central Committee in the Fifth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC.Calculations show that China is capable to reach the current high-income standard in the 14th Five-Year Plan period,double its GDP in total or per capita GDP by 2035,and the per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries.By 2050,China’s per capita GDP is estimated to be more than 40%of that of the United States.It should be noted that the level of moderately developed countries is not identical to the medium level of developed countries.