财政支农支出、农村资金外流与城乡居民收入差距

Financial Support Expenditure for Agriculture, Rural Capital Outflow and Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents

破解农村地区生产要素单向流出难题,促使城乡之间的要素平等交换和双向流动,是推动城乡融合发展的关键一环。本文基于2005—2015年中国省级面板数据,探讨财政支农支出对农村资金外流的影响及内在机理,并进一步从城乡居民收入差距视角分析农村资金外流带来的影响。结果表明:首先,财政支农支出通过增加农民收入和扩大城乡资本边际生产率差异使得农村资金外流加剧,且这一效应在市场化程度较低和人口流出的地区更为显著。其次,农村资金外流与城乡居民收入差距呈“U”型关系,当前中国部分地区农村资金外流规模已越过拐点,即农村资金外流扩大了城乡居民收入差距。最后,通过调节效应模型将三者置于同一分析框架发现,农村资金外流会削弱财政支农支出的支农效果。

It is important to crack the problem of one-way outflow of production factors in rural areas and promote equal exchange and two-way flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, which is the key to promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas.This paper uses provincial-level panel data from 2005-2015 in China to explore the impact of financial support expenditure for agriculture on rural capital outflow and the underlying mechanism, and further analyzes the impact of rural capital outflow from the perspective of income gap between urban and rural residents.The results are as follows: Firstly, financial support expenditure for agriculture exacerbates rural capital outflows by increasing farmers’ income and widening the rural-urban marginal productivity difference of capital.This effect is more significant in regions with lower degree of marketization and population outflow.Secondly, rural capital outflows have a“U”shaped relationship with the income gap between urban and rural residents.Currently, the scale of rural capital outflow in some regions of China has crossed the inflection point and to the right side of the“U”curve, which means that the rural capital outflow in these regions has widened the income gap between urban and rural residents.Finally, we use the moderating effect model to analyze financial support expenditure for agriculture, rural capital outflow and income gap between urban and rural residents in the same analytical framework.We find that rural capital outflow weakens the effect of financial support expenditure for agriculture.That is, rural capital outflow enhances the positive relationship between fiscal support expenditure on agriculture and the income gap between urban and rural residents.