扩张性财政政策的乘数效应:影响机制和政策比较

Multiplier Effect of Expansionary Fiscal Policy: Influencing Mechanism and Policy Comparison

本文基于我国财政收支与各宏观经济变量的周期性特征,分析了我国财政收入和支出政策对产出、通胀、私人消费和投资等宏观变量的影响。为了进一步测算不同类型财政政策的影响机制和政策效果,本文建模构建一个包含企业家和工人家庭的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,在模型中引入了政府投资性支出、消费性支出、消费税和所得税减税以及转移支付五种类型的扩张性财政政策的政策效果,分别计算了五种财政政策乘数。本文的结论显示,各类型财政政策在短期内均起到较好的总需求刺激效果,但在长期,政府投资性支出和所得税减税的政策效果更为突出;政府消费性支出、消费税减税、转移支付政策虽然短期刺激作用更为明显,但由于存在挤出效应以及削弱投资和资本积累,在长期存在一定的负面效果,政策有效持续期也较投资性支出和所得税减税更短。

This paper analyzes the policy effect of China’s expansionary fiscal policy.Based on empirical analysis, we test and verify the influence mechanism of expansionary fiscal policies.In order to calculate the policy multiplier, this paper builds a new Keynesian DSGE model that includes entrepreneurs and workers’ families, and introduces the effects of five types of expansionary fiscal policies, including government investment expenditure, government consumption expenditure, consumption tax and income tax reduction and transfer payment.Based on simulations, we calculate different types of fiscal policy multipliers.The conclusions of this paper show that all types of fiscal policies have a good effect on stimulating total demand in the short term, but in the long run, only the government’s investment expenditures and income tax reduction policy effects are prominent.By contrast, the government’s consumption expenditure, consumption tax reduction and transfer payment policies are more obvious in the short-term stimulus, but because of the crowding-out effect, they cause negative effects both to the investment and output in the long run, and their effective policy duration is also shorter than the tools of investment expenditures and income tax cuts.